Drew Allar could be the most high-risk, high-reward player in college football for the upcoming 2024 season.

Penn State’s Drew Allar has garnered significant attention from college football fans and scouts alike, being widely regarded as one of the most intriguing NFL prospects for the future.

Despite the high expectations and the belief that Allar could emerge as a top college quarterback, there is also potential for disappointment.

Standing at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds with remarkable arm strength, Allar often draws comparisons to Josh Allen, who serves as the ideal prototype for a player of his caliber. As he takes on the legacy of former Penn State quarterbacks like Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford, Allar carries substantial potential.

Originating from Medina High School in Ohio, Allar was a highly touted talent, catching the attention of Big Ten schools. After securing the starting role as a sophomore, he put up impressive numbers, finishing his high school career with 630 completions, 9,103 yards, and 98 touchdowns. Allar was ultimately recognized as a consensus five-star recruit nationwide.

Allar received several prominent offers from schools like Michigan, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame, but ultimately chose Penn State, despite Ohio State making a final push for his commitment. Now, Allar faces the Buckeyes as conference rivals.

His arrival at Penn State was highly anticipated, with many viewing him as the successor to Sean Clifford. As a true freshman, Allar played behind Clifford, who led the team to an 11-2 record. Allar saw action in 10 games, recording 35 completions, 344 yards, and four touchdowns. Although his time on the field was limited, there were promising signs of his potential. In a Star Wars analogy, Allar was like an emerging padawan under Clifford, ready to take on a greater role.

Under the guidance of coach James Franklin, Allar became the starting quarterback in his sophomore year. The excitement surrounding him was palpable, with some even considering him a potential Heisman candidate and a key figure in leading the Nittany Lions to new heights. However, these high expectations were not fully met.

While Allar performed well, he did not surpass most expectations. He started 13 games, achieving 233 completions on 389 attempts, 2,631 yards, and 25 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions. Though these statistics are impressive, they might not fully reflect the high hopes that surrounded him.

On paper, Drew Allar has all the right attributes: the ideal quarterback build, impressive statistics, and enormous potential. However, there are concerns that the 2023 season might be a make-or-break year for him.

So, what does a ‘boom or bust’ season look like? Let’s break it down. If Allar ‘booms’, it means he could have a standout year, but it’s important to remember that while he had a solid performance last season, it wasn’t spectacular. For Allar’s 2024 season to be a true success, Penn State would need to overcome powerhouses like Ohio State and Michigan.

However, the landscape of college football has shifted. Penn State won’t face both of these juggernauts, but they will encounter other formidable teams. The Nittany Lions will play former Pac-12 teams such as UCLA (at home), USC (on the road), and Washington (at home). Additionally, Penn State will still face Ohio State at home on November 2, followed by a tough game against Washington the following week.

The schedule has become more challenging and less predictable. Previously, a 10-2 regular season record with losses to Ohio State and Michigan seemed a safe bet. Now, with the addition of high-caliber former Pac-12 teams and the travel demands, predicting a similar record has become more difficult.

If Penn State enjoys significant success in the Big Ten this season, Drew Allar could become a leading contender for the Heisman Trophy. It’s widely believed that the team will need a standout quarterback to make a deep run, and Allar is expected to fill that role. With his existing experience and the largely unproven nature of other Big Ten quarterbacks, Allar stands out as the most established option.

While some might argue that Allar isn’t the top quarterback in the Big Ten, he is certainly the most seasoned, especially given the influx of new quarterbacks in the conference. Oregon has added Dillon Gabriel, Washington has brought in Conner Weigman, USC is set to debut Miller Moss, and both Ohio State and Michigan are introducing new quarterbacks.

Although these newcomers have proven themselves elsewhere, the new conference dynamics could bring uncertainty. In this context, Allar’s experience makes him the most established quarterback in the Big Ten right now. This isn’t about ranking Big Ten quarterbacks but rather evaluating the best and worst scenarios for Allar.

If Allar can refine his game and leverage his experience, Penn State could achieve great things. The NFL values veteran quarterback success, as seen with Bo Nix, who, in his sixth season at Oregon, was drafted 12th overall after improving his game and leading a successful team. If Allar can follow a similar trajectory, he should have a strong chance of securing a top 10 draft pick. His physical attributes, including his height and build, are also highly appealing to NFL scouts.

While Allar’s impressive stats, like his two interceptions in 2023, are noteworthy, he needs to address several flaws to be a serious Heisman contender and lead Penn State to success.

Firstly, Allar struggles significantly under pressure. In Penn State’s Peach Bowl against Ole Miss, his issues became glaringly apparent. He tends to be indecisive in the pocket, and when it starts to collapse, he often fails to make a play.

This leads to his second major issue: accuracy. His inability to deliver precise passes exacerbates the problem of handling pressure. A quarterback who can’t consistently find his targets is unlikely to be a top NFL prospect.

Lastly, Allar’s footwork needs improvement. When pressured, his attempts to adjust are often clumsy, and he’s not adept at making plays with his legs. His indecisiveness limits his ability to escape or utilize his mobility effectively, which was evident in key games against Ohio State, Michigan, and Ole Miss.

Overall, Allar has a lot of room for growth. Despite some unwarranted criticism, it’s clear that he needs to refine his mechanics and decision-making. With talented teammates around him, both last year and this year, Allar’s progress will be crucial for Penn State’s success. His accuracy issues are closely tied to his sense of awareness, and he often rushes his throws when feeling pressure, even on simple check-downs.

Indeed, Drew Allar was a five-star recruit for a reason, and his impressive stats and winning record highlight his potential. Optimistically, Allar possesses the tools necessary to overcome his current challenges. His potential was high enough that he could have entered the Draft last season and been selected based on raw ability alone.

While he remains a work in progress, and Penn State fans might have some concerns, there’s no reason the Nittany Lions should have a subpar season. The expectations for Allar are set high, and how he handles the pressure in his junior year will be crucial. Success could lead to significant NFL hype and a strong playoff run for Penn State.

Ultimately, whether Allar is ready to take that leap remains to be seen as the 2024 season approaches.