Arsenal Analysis– What happened the last 9 times that the League was decided on the Final Day

Hey everyone, this weekend will mark the 10th time the Premier League title is decided on the final day.

Despite Sky Sports’ coverage on Tuesday and AFTV’s mathematical errors, I had to double-check the league table to be sure.

It’s simple: Arsenal must win their game, and if City fails to do the same, we are the champions.

I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s not impossible either. Some people act like the Hammers need to win 4-0, but in reality, they don’t have to win at all.

It’s worth noting, though, that in the previous 9 times the title was decided on the final day, the leaders going into that last day always secured the title….

1994-95

Champions: Blackburn

Runners Up: Man United

Liverpool 2-1 Blackburn

West Ham 1-1 Man United

Of all the places for Kenny Dalglish to win an unlikely title for Blackburn, it was back ‘home’ at Anfield.

The Kop didn’t know how to react when Jamie Redknapp won the game with a stoppage-time free kick.

Thankfully for both clubs, Man United were in London at the same time, struggling to convert a host of chances at Upton Park.

Never before had a defeat been so celebrated.

Eight points clear in April, Rovers were very aware they were crawling over the finish line, crippled by nerves.

1995-96

Champions: Man United

Runners Up: Newcastle

Middlesbrough 0-3 Man United

Newcastle 1-1 Spurs

Newcastle needed to win and hope United didn’t, but it was never really a possibility, and you sensed Kevin Keegan knew it deep down.

As he famously reminded everyone days earlier, United “got to Middlesbrough and they got to get something ….”

In reality, though, his issue wasn’t with what Sir Alex was doing; it was dealing with a title collapse that saw Newcastle squander a 12-point lead from January.

The manager tried every approach possible to get his players to react but simply couldn’t.

1998-99

Champions: Man United

Runners Up: Arsenal

Man United 2-1 Spurs

Arsenal 1-0 Villa

So, Tuesday wasn’t the only time Gooners were Spurs fans for the day.

We needed an even bigger favor from our neighbors on the final day of the 1999 season.

We needed Tottenham to get a result at Old Trafford. To be fair, they did take the lead, but by the time Kanu broke the deadlock at Highbury, we were aware United were winning.

2008-09

Champions: Man United

Runners Up: Chelsea

Wigan 0-2 Man United

Chelsea 1-1 Bolton

Man United and Chelsea started the day tied on points, but United had the advantage on goal difference.

It would have been the first time in Premier League history that the Champions and runners-up finished with the same total points. That was until Matthew Taylor equalized in added time at the Bridge. To be fair, all involved were aware that United were comfortably winning at Wigan, with Ryan Giggs setting a record for consecutive seasons scored in.

Sir Alex Ferguson would also get the last laugh on Avram Grant two weeks later in the Champions League Final.

2009-10

Champions: Chelsea

Runners Up: Man United

Chelsea 8-0 Wigan

Man United 4-0 Stoke

An anticlimax for Sky Sports as Chelsea scored inside 6 minutes and had a two-goal and one-man advantage after half an hour. The rest of the afternoon became more about Drogba trying to win the Golden Boot.

With the result a formality so early on, United’s game at Old Trafford suddenly had nothing riding on it.

2011-12

Champions: Man City

Runners Up: Man United

Man City 3-2 QPR

Sunderland 0-1 Man United

The only time the Premier League has been decided on goal difference, as Man City did their best to make a mess out of winning their first championship in 44 years.

All they had to do was beat a team flirting with relegation at home.

Then, after an hour, they had to beat a QPR team down to 10 men with the scores level.

Somehow, they found themselves losing as the game went into stoppage time.

When the full-time whistle went at the Stadium of Light, United thought they were champions, knowing the score at the Etihad was 2-2, until… Aguero!!!!

2013-14

Champions: Man City

Runners Up: Liverpool

Man City 2-0 West Ham

Liverpool 2-1 Newcastle

Hope this isn’t an omen for this weekend, but West Ham surrendered quite easily.

City were 2-0 up by the time Liverpool took the lead in their game.

In all reality, all parties knew the main drama had occurred in the previous two weeks.

The Gerrard slip against Chelsea, followed by throwing away a 3-0 lead at Selhurst Park, had cost Brendan Rodgers everything.

2018-19

Champions: Man City

Runners Up: Liverpool

Brighton 1-4 Man City

Liverpool 2-0 Wolves

Liverpool found themselves in a similar situation to what we face this Sunday.

They had a brief moment of hope—1 minute to be precise. That’s how long Brighton led before normal service resumed.

It meant an incredible 97 points were not enough for Klopp to be a champion.

2021-22

Champions: Man City

Runners Up: Liverpool

Man City 3-2 Aston Villa

Liverpool 3-1 Wolves

Why Gooners should have hope?

Those who say it’s impossible for West Ham to get a result at the Etihad would have said the same about QPR and Aston Villa.

Villa were up 2-0 after 76 minutes until City scored 3 goals in the space of 5 minutes.

Not quite an Aguero moment from Gundogan, but pretty close.

Conclusion:

The previous nine instances show a mix of predictable outcomes and dramatic turnarounds. Leaders going into the final day have historically managed to secure the title, often amidst intense pressure and dramatic circumstances. This history suggests that while challenging, it’s not impossible for the underdog to hope for an upset.