As the 2024 NFL Draft approaches, the Chicago Bears face a challenging decision regarding their first overall pick. The consensus among many is to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams, considered a generational prospect with the potential to reshape a franchise’s trajectory. However, the presence of current starting quarterback Justin Fields, drafted 11th overall in 2021, adds complexity to the decision-making process. While Fields has been a subject of trade talks during the offseason, some Bears fans and writers argue that the first pick’s trade value might be too significant to ignore.
Caleb Williams’ value is widely acknowledged, prompting a closer examination of the potential trade scenarios. Reflecting on recent instances where the first overall pick was traded provides insights. Last year, the Carolina Panthers traded up to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, acquiring the Bears’ first overall pick. The Panthers relinquished the ninth and 61st overall picks in the 2023 draft, their first-round pick in 2024 (now the first overall pick), and star wide receiver D.J. Moore.
Considering the Bryce Young trade, the Bears must now determine the value they could extract for the right to draft Caleb Williams. Despite the high demand for quarterbacks, the abundance of top-tier quarterback talent in this year’s draft class, including Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels, may impact the trade value. Teams like the Commanders, Patriots, and Giants, holding the second, third, and sixth picks, are potential candidates for quarterbacks.
Given these factors, it’s likely that the Bears might receive only one first-round pick for the first overall pick this year, in contrast to the 2023 trade. Teams further down the draft order, such as the Vikings, Falcons, and Steelers, would likely need to offer more than one first-rounder and include multiple picks, possibly mirroring the haul the Rams gave up to draft Jared Goff in 2016.
Despite Caleb Williams’ undeniable talent, the diluted quarterback market and a preference for veteran players could result in a less impressive trade compared to last year’s deal.